June 13/09. Iran's
official election results, the re-election of President Ahmadinejad, has caused
thousands of Iranians to take to the streets. For reports on the street
One Jerusalem has been in
touch with experienced Iranian reporters who are outside the country but have
sources and family in the country. Their analysis are summed up by one of their
colleagues in a private e-mail:
"Everybody in shock. A real sea
change in the completely opposite direction than expected. Yes, we are getting a
military dictatorship. The
Islamic Republic is eating its own kids of the
founding years, the popular "values" and "principles, " groups and
personalities. We'll have a much more radical regime, confrontational, with the
last rather moderate voices silenced. My personal conclusions:
-- 80% voted with hope of
change. Radical fraud has changed the popular mood. Lost hopes for moderation
and peaceful change of the regime's behavior. Lost legitimacy in the eyes of the
-- I expect suppression and
real terror inside the country, exodus of intellectuals and moderates.
-- I expect a consistent and
even increased radicalization in foreign policy. More confrontational policies
toward the West. -- How does Washington/West want to respond?"
If a larger number of
Iranians believe that the election has been stolen and if, in fact, it has been
that means the problem of Iran for the United States and Israel looms even
The only way this could
have happened in a country of this size is for the Revolutionary Guard, the
guardians of the revolution, to have manipulated the outcome. The Revolutionary
guard is an economic and military powerhouse in Iran. It has the capacity to
pull off a fraud of this size. It also has the power to (in the words of our
writer) eat its own kids.
The Revolutionary Guard is
also a driving force behind Iran's support for terrorism and the nuclear
program. President Ahmadinejad is a former member.
If these election results
stand and the protests are turned back it will mean that the most radical
elements of the Iranian Revolution will be in total control. It will mean that
President Obama's desire to come to an accommodation with Iran will be an even
more far fetched dream than it is today.
A good indication of what
will happen in Iran will be when the religious leadership either accepts the
election results or not. An endorsement of the result will indicate that the
Revolutionary Guard is that much closer to pulling off the coup of the century.
Which brings us to the question of America's response to this situation. Some
are urging President Obama to give a speech to the Iranian people. To express
solidarity with these people who have been robbed, So far the Obama
Administration has been very cautious in its comments. Secretary of State
Clinton said that we will wait and see.
Of course, the Obama Administration is constrained by its polices up until now.
It has based its entire policy of engagement with Iran on the premise that the
dictators in charge of the Islamic Republic are legitimate representatives of
the Iranian people. To take this course President Obama has ignored the
repression of the Iranian people. To criticize the re-election of Ahmadinejad
would be to change policy. Obama is constrained by the notion that the best way
to stop Iran's nuclear problem is to deal with whomever is in power in Iran.
Lets see if Obama wakes up