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June 13/09. Iran's official election results, the re-election of President Ahmadinejad, has caused thousands of Iranians to take to the streets. For reports on the street demonstrations see here and here.

One Jerusalem has been in touch with experienced Iranian reporters who are outside the country but have sources and family in the country. Their analysis are summed up by one of their colleagues in a private e-mail:

"Everybody in shock. A real sea change in the completely opposite direction than expected. Yes, we are getting a military dictatorship. The Islamic Republic is eating its own kids of the founding years, the popular "values" and "principles, " groups and personalities. We'll have a much more radical regime, confrontational, with the last rather moderate voices silenced. My personal conclusions:

-- 80% voted with hope of change. Radical fraud has changed the popular mood. Lost hopes for moderation and peaceful change of the regime's behavior. Lost legitimacy in the eyes of the majority.

-- I expect suppression and real terror inside the country, exodus of intellectuals and moderates.

-- I expect a consistent and even increased radicalization in foreign policy. More confrontational policies toward the West. -- How does Washington/West want to respond?"

If a larger number of Iranians believe that the election has been stolen and if, in fact, it has been that means the problem of Iran for the United States and Israel looms even larger today.

The only way this could have happened in a country of this size is for the Revolutionary Guard, the guardians of the revolution, to have manipulated the outcome. The Revolutionary guard is an economic and military powerhouse in Iran. It has the capacity to pull off a fraud of this size.  It also has the power to (in the words of our writer) eat its own kids.

The Revolutionary Guard is also a driving force behind Iran's support for terrorism and the nuclear program. President Ahmadinejad is a former member.

If these election results stand and the protests are turned back it will mean that the most radical elements of the Iranian Revolution will be in total control. It will mean that President Obama's desire to come to an accommodation with Iran will be an even more far fetched dream than it is today.

A good indication of what will happen in Iran will be when the religious leadership either accepts the election results or not. An endorsement of the result will indicate that the Revolutionary Guard is that much closer to pulling off the coup of the century.

Which brings us to the question of America's response to this situation. Some are urging President Obama to give a speech to the Iranian people. To express solidarity with these people who have been robbed, So far the Obama Administration has been very cautious in its comments. Secretary of State Clinton said that we will wait and see.

Of course, the Obama Administration is constrained by its polices up until now.  It has based its entire policy of engagement with Iran on the premise that the dictators in charge of the Islamic Republic are legitimate representatives of the Iranian people. To take this course President Obama has ignored the repression of the Iranian people. To criticize the re-election of Ahmadinejad would be to change policy. Obama is constrained by the notion that the best way to stop Iran's nuclear problem is to deal with whomever is in power in Iran.

Lets see if Obama wakes up to reality.

June 14/09.  BBC> Up to 100 members of Iranian reformist groups have been arrested, accused of orchestrating violence after the disputed presidential election result.  Backers of defeated reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi were rounded up overnight, reports said, including the brother of ex-President Khatami.

There were reports of new small-scale clashes on Sunday ahead of a planned victory rally by President Ahmadinejad. There were also new reports of a clampdown on independent media.

The offices of the Saudi-funded Arabic TV station al-Arabiya were shut down for "unknown reasons", the channel said. Mobile phone service was restored but there were reports that text messaging remained restricted and curbs continued on access to popular internet sites, including the BBC.

The reformists - said to include Mohammad Reza Khatami, brother of former President Mohammad Khatami, a former government spokesman and a former deputy speaker of parliament - were reported to have been taken from their homes by security forces overnight.

Iran's state news agency, Irna, said those arrested were involved in orchestrating Saturday's protests in Tehran.

Mr Mousavi's whereabouts are unknown but he is thought to remain free. Angry crowds took to the streets to protest against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election, in spite of Mr Mousavi's post-election call to avoid violence.

He has refused to accept the election result, calling it a "dangerous charade" and alleging wide-scale irregularities



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